* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * JOHN EP101994 08/19/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 45 45 49 51 52 52 51 49 48 47 V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 45 45 49 51 52 52 51 49 48 47 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 42 43 44 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G10R 25 28 24 25 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 13 11 11 9 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 310 317 310 324 322 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 138 137 135 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 8 8 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 62 61 57 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 10 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -54 -38 -30 -30 -27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -1 16 22 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1746 1834 1943 2074 2224 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.8 16.8 16.8 16.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 126.8 128.3 129.7 131.3 133.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 5. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 9. 8. 7.