* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * CHRIS AL041994 08/21/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 38 39 40 43 46 49 51 55 58 60 62 V (KT) LAND 40 38 38 39 40 43 46 49 51 55 58 60 62 V (KT) LGE mod 40 36 34 33 33 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G04R 42 32 32 32 31 32 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 25 23 19 16 16 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 1 -4 -6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 27 35 38 34 40 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 141 141 141 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 130 131 129 127 126 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.0 -55.2 -55.5 -55.6 -56.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 12 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 52 55 54 54 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 10 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -54 -87 -104 -107 -123 -139 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 11 -2 -9 11 1 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1008 1114 1291 1421 1239 882 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.2 27.5 29.3 31.1 32.8 36.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 60.7 61.2 61.2 61.5 61.5 60.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 16 18 18 18 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):308/ 17 CX,CY: -12/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. -8. -5. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -1. 0. 3. 6. 9. 11. 15. 18. 20. 22.