* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * CHRIS AL041994 08/21/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 38 40 42 45 51 52 49 38 26 23 21 V (KT) LAND 40 38 38 40 42 45 51 52 49 38 26 23 21 V (KT) LGE mod 40 36 34 33 33 35 39 42 40 35 31 DIS DIS V (KT) G06R 48 40 42 38 42 41 46 51 46 34 22 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 19 20 17 15 14 5 10 18 33 50 63 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 3 -1 -3 -6 4 0 4 14 11 6 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 16 19 28 13 15 32 40 57 60 71 86 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 26.5 19.0 15.6 12.2 13.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 141 140 140 140 124 83 78 73 70 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 131 130 128 125 123 125 111 79 75 71 67 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.5 -54.7 -54.9 -55.0 -55.2 -55.0 -55.7 -55.5 -54.7 -54.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 11 11 11 12 11 9 3 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 52 54 55 53 53 59 60 58 61 59 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 17 16 17 18 17 16 17 18 21 15 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -46 -76 -92 -96 -126 -133 -26 -49 -64 -36 -3 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 3 -3 31 8 25 49 43 38 42 22 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1036 1165 1342 1359 1202 924 670 336 799 1424 789 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.6 28.1 29.9 31.6 33.1 36.2 40.2 44.1 48.5 51.8 53.6 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.0 61.3 61.6 61.7 61.7 60.2 56.6 50.8 42.1 31.1 22.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 17 18 16 15 21 26 34 40 35 20 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):308/ 17 CX,CY: -12/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 5. 1. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. -8. -5. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -7. -10. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. -3. -9. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. 0. 2. 5. 11. 12. 9. -2. -14. -17. -19.