* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * JOHN EP101994 08/21/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 100 98 97 95 94 91 91 91 90 91 93 92 V (KT) LAND 100 100 98 97 95 94 91 91 91 90 91 93 92 V (KT) LGE mod 100 101 99 97 94 91 91 94 96 96 95 93 92 V (KT) G07R 20 24 24 24 23 28 29 26 24 24 27 31 35 SHEAR (KT) 11 14 13 11 9 9 9 9 11 9 10 9 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 -2 -5 -5 -4 -4 -6 2 -1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 248 259 247 234 218 173 163 131 145 104 129 122 123 SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 150 150 149 150 147 147 144 144 144 144 146 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.2 -54.5 -54.8 -54.4 -54.4 -54.2 -53.9 -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 9 9 10 10 11 12 12 13 13 13 13 700-500 MB RH 67 67 65 62 60 56 54 53 52 51 53 55 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 12 12 13 14 15 850 MB ENV VOR 10 26 37 44 47 31 21 19 5 2 2 11 18 200 MB DIV 21 29 15 22 19 19 3 32 31 11 22 19 32 LAND (KM) 1575 1437 1350 1222 1124 873 623 716 811 939 1067 1233 1400 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 13.4 13.0 12.7 12.7 13.0 13.5 13.0 13.6 14.3 14.7 14.8 15.5 LONG(DEG W) 141.2 142.9 144.1 145.8 147.0 150.2 154.0 158.3 160.9 163.6 166.4 168.7 171.2 STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 15 14 13 17 22 17 12 15 12 11 14 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -9. -13. -17. -22. -25. -28. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -7. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 6. 7. 7. 9. 11. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -9. -9. -10. -9. -7. -8.