* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * CHRIS AL041994 08/21/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 39 40 41 45 47 46 48 51 53 54 55 V (KT) LAND 40 38 39 40 41 45 47 46 48 51 53 54 55 V (KT) LGE mod 40 36 34 34 34 34 36 38 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G09R 29 33 31 33 33 32 33 32 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 21 19 16 16 15 15 14 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 0 0 2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 29 32 42 47 58 74 70 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.2 27.9 27.0 23.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 142 141 142 137 128 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 133 133 131 127 125 118 111 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.7 -55.0 -55.1 -55.5 -55.7 -55.7 -56.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 11 11 11 11 10 10 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 52 53 51 49 51 54 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 12 12 12 11 11 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -60 -90 -111 -131 -153 -168 -102 -66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 -6 6 35 15 1 30 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1061 1230 1454 1368 1214 996 812 564 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.7 28.4 30.4 32.2 33.9 36.7 39.4 42.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 60.7 60.6 60.0 59.2 58.7 57.3 54.2 50.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 19 20 18 17 16 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):308/ 17 CX,CY: -12/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 420 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. -8. -5. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -1. 0. 1. 5. 7. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15.