* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * FIVE AL051994 08/27/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 40 45 53 62 70 79 86 90 93 96 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 40 35 41 50 58 67 74 78 81 52 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 33 30 34 38 44 52 61 70 73 44 V (KT) G00R 18 21 21 22 27 26 30 31 32 36 41 38 34 SHEAR (KT) 8 6 11 11 3 9 6 11 13 17 20 9 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 2 1 0 1 0 1 -2 -2 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 101 164 213 241 302 178 169 155 123 113 67 78 76 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.6 26.3 12.6 28.8 29.0 29.3 29.5 29.4 29.2 16.2 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 147 146 118 67 147 150 155 159 158 155 69 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 148 142 138 111 66 133 133 136 140 139 136 66 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -54.5 -54.3 -53.9 -54.3 -53.5 -54.1 -53.4 -53.4 -52.8 -53.4 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 14 12 11 13 13 11 12 11 14 13 16 13 17 700-500 MB RH 73 70 69 67 68 63 61 56 56 53 52 54 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 8 9 10 11 11 13 13 15 18 19 22 22 850 MB ENV VOR 38 44 37 28 14 0 -3 -10 6 0 9 30 70 200 MB DIV 84 94 76 90 81 9 30 18 45 16 51 45 100 LAND (KM) 250 198 100 18 -53 100 208 324 411 342 236 42 -107 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 17.6 18.1 19.2 20.5 22.1 23.0 23.7 24.1 25.0 26.4 28.2 29.6 LONG(DEG W) 84.3 85.8 86.7 87.2 87.7 89.7 90.1 91.5 92.5 93.8 94.8 96.0 96.3 STM SPEED (KT) 15 11 10 13 14 7 6 6 7 8 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):249/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 16. 21. 26. 29. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 9. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 20. 28. 37. 45. 54. 61. 65. 68. 71.