* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * JOHN EP101994 08/27/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 86 85 83 82 84 84 83 82 82 81 80 79 V (KT) LAND 85 86 85 83 82 84 84 83 82 82 81 80 79 V (KT) LGE mod 85 88 91 92 93 94 89 88 86 83 81 78 75 V (KT) G03R 65 46 44 47 47 46 53 53 53 49 50 56 52 SHEAR (KT) 10 15 19 21 19 13 16 13 16 12 12 15 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 1 -2 -2 1 -2 1 0 1 3 5 2 SHEAR DIR 343 23 60 72 76 69 85 100 126 128 138 106 95 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.3 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 150 150 150 159 147 145 146 148 148 146 147 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.4 -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 12 13 12 700-500 MB RH 52 50 50 52 51 52 53 53 54 56 58 62 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 22 22 21 22 25 26 27 28 29 30 32 34 850 MB ENV VOR 35 31 26 27 28 38 42 48 43 51 56 64 75 200 MB DIV 42 -5 -8 1 18 29 13 16 21 1 17 20 25 LAND (KM) 1510 1627 1730 1818 1909 2058 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.3 18.6 19.1 19.6 20.4 21.3 21.8 22.1 22.1 22.0 22.1 22.3 LONG(DEG W) 173.7 174.9 176.0 177.0 178.0 179.6 ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 9 1679 8 9 8 8 6 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):299/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 3. 3. 6. 7. 9. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. -0. -2. -3. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6.