* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * JOHN EP101994 08/27/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 86 86 86 84 84 85 85 81 80 79 78 77 V (KT) LAND 85 86 86 86 84 84 85 85 81 80 79 78 77 V (KT) LGE mod 85 89 91 93 94 91 92 89 87 83 78 73 69 V (KT) G05R 83 54 55 52 56 52 53 56 49 56 57 61 57 SHEAR (KT) 8 12 14 17 20 16 16 17 14 17 12 17 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -1 0 -1 -3 0 0 2 1 2 -4 SHEAR DIR 342 2 38 59 65 71 94 80 86 82 72 51 45 SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 148 150 150 151 151 161 149 147 146 144 143 140 141 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -53.4 -53.7 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 14 13 13 13 14 13 13 13 13 13 12 13 12 700-500 MB RH 52 48 48 49 49 50 51 50 53 55 58 58 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 28 25 24 25 25 25 27 30 29 31 32 35 38 850 MB ENV VOR 47 37 36 36 37 52 44 56 40 53 55 67 84 200 MB DIV 47 20 4 0 17 66 14 40 20 12 43 61 59 LAND (KM) 1534 1671 1772 1859 1934 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.1 17.9 18.2 18.7 19.4 20.0 20.7 21.3 21.9 22.7 23.5 24.5 25.6 LONG(DEG W) 173.9 175.2 176.3 177.3 178.2 ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 11 11 10 1681 9 8 6 7 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):299/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -1. 3. 1. 4. 7. 10. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8.