* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * FIVE AL051994 08/27/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 40 45 49 56 64 73 80 82 84 89 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 40 35 30 39 47 56 63 65 67 73 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 33 30 28 32 37 44 52 62 70 79 V (KT) G06R 19 21 23 23 25 23 27 27 25 32 27 30 32 SHEAR (KT) 3 5 9 10 5 8 3 11 8 14 16 12 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 0 0 -2 1 0 0 0 -3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 141 167 218 251 307 205 220 193 166 156 118 128 96 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.6 24.5 9.3 16.2 27.8 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 146 101 64 70 133 150 150 150 147 141 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 144 139 93 63 67 119 134 135 134 131 121 121 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -54.5 -54.2 -53.9 -54.2 -53.9 -54.2 -53.1 -53.5 -53.0 -53.6 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 15 12 10 12 13 10 14 11 15 13 17 15 18 700-500 MB RH 72 70 69 67 68 65 64 59 62 63 63 66 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 9 10 11 11 10 11 11 12 14 12 13 15 850 MB ENV VOR 42 40 30 24 11 -10 -3 -18 8 13 22 28 46 200 MB DIV 76 89 71 71 65 23 43 35 57 27 49 27 42 LAND (KM) 130 172 110 13 -48 -16 99 257 331 201 132 88 82 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.4 18.1 18.9 19.5 20.7 21.3 21.6 21.6 22.3 22.6 22.4 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 84.2 85.6 86.6 87.3 87.8 90.2 91.2 92.7 93.8 95.3 96.5 97.0 97.0 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 11 9 11 9 7 6 7 6 6 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):249/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 11. 17. 21. 24. 25. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 20. 24. 31. 39. 48. 55. 57. 59. 64.