* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * FIVE AL051994 08/27/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 30 35 41 46 55 65 73 81 87 92 95 95 V (KT) LAND 25 30 35 41 40 44 54 62 71 77 81 60 37 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 33 36 35 40 46 54 63 72 51 34 V (KT) G08R 18 24 23 23 28 30 30 31 36 39 46 35 22 SHEAR (KT) 8 8 11 9 2 12 7 10 12 16 22 12 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 3 3 2 0 0 1 -2 -2 -4 0 3 SHEAR DIR 123 169 203 235 242 167 157 154 108 104 60 41 52 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.4 27.6 28.8 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 146 143 132 149 153 156 157 158 156 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 143 141 140 134 122 136 136 136 137 138 139 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -54.5 -54.2 -53.8 -54.0 -53.4 -53.8 -53.3 -53.4 -52.8 -53.7 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 15 12 11 13 13 12 12 11 14 12 15 11 11 700-500 MB RH 74 70 69 67 67 64 60 56 52 50 46 59 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 8 10 11 12 12 13 14 15 19 21 24 23 850 MB ENV VOR 52 52 47 40 23 5 -6 -14 -11 -25 1 76 55 200 MB DIV 98 111 90 95 81 11 34 21 36 28 70 108 89 LAND (KM) 174 193 132 62 -4 110 268 384 438 348 163 -107 -411 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.6 18.6 19.7 20.6 22.4 23.7 24.5 25.2 26.4 28.3 30.7 33.5 LONG(DEG W) 84.2 85.5 86.2 86.7 87.2 88.8 89.6 90.7 91.5 92.6 93.2 94.0 93.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 12 11 11 10 6 5 7 8 12 12 16 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):249/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 8. 9. 11. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 5. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 16. 21. 30. 40. 48. 56. 62. 67. 70. 70.