* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * JOHN EP101994 08/27/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 87 87 87 88 89 91 91 90 90 92 89 87 V (KT) LAND 85 87 87 87 88 89 91 91 90 90 92 89 87 V (KT) LGE mod 85 89 91 94 90 94 95 94 92 89 85 81 77 V (KT) G08R 57 46 44 46 47 48 53 57 56 53 62 55 62 SHEAR (KT) 9 19 20 20 17 14 12 13 10 10 15 12 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -2 -5 -5 -3 -3 0 -3 2 0 6 -5 SHEAR DIR 350 33 58 63 71 72 52 90 78 99 93 85 98 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 152 161 162 150 148 148 146 145 146 146 147 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -52.8 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 14 13 13 12 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 13 700-500 MB RH 52 47 48 47 48 50 51 48 51 51 56 57 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 23 22 23 23 24 26 28 29 30 33 34 35 850 MB ENV VOR 39 27 28 26 24 22 28 22 30 31 54 66 86 200 MB DIV 61 23 -3 -1 7 6 27 -31 20 23 44 45 27 LAND (KM) 1580 1753 1890 2003 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.5 18.7 19.1 19.6 20.4 21.5 22.2 22.9 22.9 23.4 23.5 24.0 LONG(DEG W) 174.4 176.2 177.6 178.8 ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 13 1689 1685 10 10 11 9 6 7 4 7 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):299/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -4. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 7. 9. 10. 15. 16. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 5. 7. 4. 2.