* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * JOHN EP101994 09/03/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 30 31 28 27 25 20 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 30 31 28 27 25 20 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 27 26 24 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G02R 45 43 47 50 55 51 58 59 56 55 52 49 51 SHEAR (KT) 12 9 11 17 15 17 14 16 12 16 10 10 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 4 4 1 8 4 4 3 2 2 5 SHEAR DIR 126 107 111 123 103 91 110 101 88 95 102 106 97 SST (C) 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 129 131 132 132 130 128 130 129 127 127 124 137 123 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.6 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -51.8 -51.5 -51.4 -51.4 -51.1 -51.4 -51.3 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 58 54 53 50 48 46 47 42 40 36 38 39 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 35 33 32 33 34 35 35 36 36 35 34 33 34 850 MB ENV VOR 78 87 96 89 92 87 86 75 63 23 25 0 34 200 MB DIV 23 9 11 12 26 3 21 9 28 2 22 -6 46 LAND (KM) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 2071 LAT (DEG N) 26.8 26.4 26.0 26.2 26.6 26.6 27.0 27.4 28.5 29.4 30.3 30.1 30.9 LONG(DEG W) ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** 178.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 4 1 4 4 5 6 2 1545 8 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):109/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -3. -5. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -9. -13. -15. -18. -19. -20. -20. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 1. -0. -1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -14. -16. -16.