* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * LANE EP141994 09/05/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 56 58 59 58 58 55 49 44 37 35 34 V (KT) LAND 50 54 56 58 59 58 58 55 49 44 37 35 34 V (KT) LGE mod 50 55 59 62 64 65 65 65 63 59 54 DIS DIS V (KT) G03R 30 22 22 19 20 19 18 20 19 20 18 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 13 11 12 8 6 3 4 19 22 29 43 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -2 -1 -2 -2 -5 -7 -3 -2 -14 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 164 166 181 189 187 265 11 87 84 79 100 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 27.9 27.8 27.3 26.6 26.4 26.4 25.8 25.4 25.3 25.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 145 144 140 133 130 129 122 118 116 123 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -54.2 -54.1 -54.5 -54.7 -55.3 -54.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 7 7 6 7 8 8 10 10 11 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 57 57 52 49 46 43 41 38 39 38 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 11 10 9 8 7 8 7 7 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 23 24 18 13 16 20 14 5 -2 -5 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 -2 -13 -17 -1 -15 -24 -8 25 3 -12 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 698 791 879 1008 1144 1480 1731 1949 2152 1981 1702 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.9 19.0 19.2 19.6 18.8 18.5 18.8 19.0 19.2 18.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.8 116.6 118.1 120.0 121.9 125.7 128.6 131.4 133.8 135.9 138.6 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 16 16 18 18 15 14 12 11 10 13 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):267/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 5. 3. -0. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 8. 5. -1. -6. -13. -15. -16.