* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * LANE EP141994 09/05/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 57 59 60 60 59 55 48 41 33 26 18 V (KT) LAND 50 54 57 59 60 60 59 55 48 41 33 26 18 V (KT) LGE mod 50 56 60 63 65 66 65 63 59 53 46 40 34 V (KT) G04R 34 24 24 22 23 23 26 25 25 23 23 24 23 SHEAR (KT) 7 3 6 6 6 5 5 11 19 23 30 31 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 0 0 0 -2 -4 -3 -3 2 -2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 178 210 218 244 260 266 354 72 53 64 79 94 94 SST (C) 28.3 28.0 27.9 27.5 26.9 26.2 25.7 25.0 24.2 24.3 24.8 25.0 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 150 146 146 142 135 127 122 115 106 106 112 114 116 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.5 -54.9 -55.2 -55.8 -55.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 8 8 7 6 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 59 55 56 51 47 47 44 42 43 43 40 40 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 15 14 13 13 13 12 11 11 10 9 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 15 13 21 26 34 37 27 21 15 16 1 -7 -16 200 MB DIV 7 15 -9 -14 -8 -8 -3 -10 0 -7 -24 -11 -14 LAND (KM) 667 774 868 1006 1157 1404 1597 1847 2067 1904 1645 1368 1069 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 18.9 18.8 19.0 19.1 19.1 19.6 19.9 20.5 21.0 21.0 21.3 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 114.6 116.3 117.7 119.8 121.7 125.0 127.9 131.0 134.0 136.6 139.1 141.8 144.7 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 17 19 17 15 14 15 14 11 13 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):267/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 8. 7. 4. 1. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -9. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 5. -2. -9. -17. -24. -32.