* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * LANE EP141994 09/05/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 57 59 61 62 62 59 56 51 44 34 24 V (KT) LAND 50 54 57 59 61 62 62 59 56 51 44 34 24 V (KT) LGE mod 50 56 60 63 66 70 72 72 70 65 57 48 39 V (KT) G09R 35 25 26 24 23 24 25 24 24 27 29 27 25 SHEAR (KT) 8 7 7 5 5 2 3 9 10 18 22 32 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -1 -1 -3 -1 -1 -3 -5 -4 -2 5 3 -3 SHEAR DIR 190 196 212 265 295 320 340 71 75 60 65 95 98 SST (C) 28.7 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.2 27.5 26.7 26.5 25.5 24.3 24.1 24.7 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 153 150 149 148 147 141 132 131 120 107 105 112 112 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -54.3 -54.3 -54.6 -54.9 -55.3 -55.0 -55.7 -55.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 57 59 58 55 55 56 50 45 41 40 37 36 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 15 15 14 13 12 11 10 10 9 9 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -15 -3 1 8 27 18 7 -13 -24 -21 -15 -15 200 MB DIV -10 10 -2 -1 6 -17 -10 -28 -2 -6 7 -15 -5 LAND (KM) 682 783 912 1009 1081 1269 1472 1699 1892 2079 1885 1557 1243 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 17.9 17.8 17.5 17.5 17.7 18.1 18.5 19.3 20.3 21.4 21.6 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 113.8 115.3 116.9 118.1 119.2 121.9 124.8 128.2 131.1 133.9 136.8 140.0 143.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 13 11 11 15 15 16 13 14 15 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):267/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 8. 5. 3. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 5. 2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 9. 6. 1. -6. -16. -26.