* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * JOHN EP101994 09/05/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 51 50 50 46 40 37 36 33 31 28 16 V (KT) LAND 50 51 51 50 50 46 40 37 36 33 31 28 16 V (KT) LGE mod 50 52 52 52 51 48 43 40 36 34 31 28 23 V (KT) G10R 73 67 60 59 60 50 48 48 52 51 60 59 61 SHEAR (KT) 15 10 11 17 15 10 11 8 11 16 10 16 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 4 7 3 2 5 0 3 5 5 4 9 7 SHEAR DIR 93 110 57 96 102 54 97 105 162 96 97 35 13 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.4 25.8 25.5 24.3 20.4 POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 135 135 134 131 131 140 128 120 120 110 71 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -51.8 -51.2 -51.1 -50.8 -51.4 -51.7 -51.8 -52.0 -51.4 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 9 8 5 2 700-500 MB RH 50 48 47 44 43 39 43 43 45 48 57 58 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 40 39 39 37 37 36 34 34 34 35 37 40 38 850 MB ENV VOR 111 109 107 84 78 72 46 48 60 61 80 100 126 200 MB DIV 25 25 23 46 35 34 6 13 10 23 52 110 32 LAND (KM) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 2129 2022 1937 2025 1780 LAT (DEG N) 26.2 26.6 27.0 27.7 28.5 29.3 30.3 30.9 31.2 32.1 33.3 36.4 41.3 LONG(DEG W) ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** ***** 178.6 176.8 174.8 172.7 170.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 6 8 8 4 6 1538 10 8 15 22 27 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. -0. -2. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -16. -18. -19. -20. -20. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -7. -7. -6. -4. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. -0. -4. -10. -13. -14. -17. -19. -22. -34.