* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ROSA EP191994 10/14/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 73 56 40 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 73 51 41 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 75 53 41 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G07R 71 41 27 27 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 26 36 39 44 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 12 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 358 10 40 56 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 22.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -53.0 -52.9 -52.4 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 8 4 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 59 54 53 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 31 18 8 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 50 45 41 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 137 68 36 11 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 139 46 -186 -489 -361 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.1 21.5 24.1 26.1 26.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.0 106.0 104.8 102.7 101.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 22 28 21 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 7 CX,CY: 3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 338 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -10. -15. -19. -24. -27. -30. -32. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -8. -12. -16. -23. -28. -34. -40. -45. -49. -52. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -7. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -2. -9. -16. -21. -31. -35. -37. -37. -36. -37. -35. -32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -24. -40. -57. -87.-108.-126.-138.-148.-158.-165.-171.