* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ROSA EP191994 10/14/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 75 63 47 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 75 57 44 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 78 74 49 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G09R 53 53 22 32 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 23 33 37 46 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 17 18 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 1 11 23 49 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 10 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 59 55 55 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 30 23 12 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 25 70 50 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 116 75 82 50 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 203 129 -22 -408 -418 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.7 23.1 25.9 27.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.5 106.9 106.0 103.6 101.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 18 30 30 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 7 CX,CY: 3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 358 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -12. -17. -25. -30. -37. -43. -48. -53. -56. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -1. -8. -15. -20. -28. -31. -33. -33. -32. -33. -31. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -17. -33. -48. -72. -90.-105.-115.-124.-134.-140.-144.