* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ROSA EP191994 10/14/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 76 71 64 49 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 76 71 64 49 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 78 75 71 63 38 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G10R 43 36 32 29 23 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 23 33 32 36 43 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 6 9 8 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 15 13 6 1 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.7 21.9 8.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 147 151 79 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 9 9 10 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 56 54 49 43 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 19 17 16 13 9 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 79 67 77 68 66 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 98 93 55 46 17 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 203 250 228 177 97 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.6 21.0 21.5 22.2 22.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.6 108.1 107.8 107.3 106.7 106.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 5 6 8 6 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 7 CX,CY: 3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. -2. -15. -21. -26. -31. -35. -38. -41. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -10. -14. -20. -24. -28. -31. -34. -36. -39. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -4. -9. -19. -21. -23. -23. -22. -23. -22. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -16. -31. -64. -79. -92.-102.-108.-115.-119.-123.