* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * FLORENCE AL111994 11/08/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 83 77 70 63 48 31 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 85 83 77 70 63 48 31 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 85 83 74 63 53 39 31 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G02R 50 41 55 49 46 47 44 36 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 9 18 31 26 31 24 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 26 24 20 27 17 7 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 118 46 31 349 322 243 169 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.9 21.9 16.6 9.4 7.9 6.6 9.2 15.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 98 94 79 70 65 62 67 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 92 89 77 68 64 61 66 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.5 -55.6 -52.3 -49.7 -47.5 -45.6 -45.6 -45.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 54 54 56 54 53 59 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 22 22 28 30 34 37 29 24 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 123 218 283 352 362 402 383 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 49 46 48 29 0 -9 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1035 868 669 570 415 286 549 976 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.6 39.9 43.8 47.4 49.3 48.8 47.3 48.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 50.3 47.7 45.6 45.2 47.3 49.1 45.5 39.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 31 36 39 28 16 7 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 56/ 24 CX,CY: 20/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 893 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -13. -19. -32. -41. -50. -55. -60. -61. -60. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -4. -5. -10. -13. -15. -16. -17. -16. -14. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -7. -11. -13. -15. -18. -21. -24. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -20. -24. -28. -31. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 2. 3. 5. 9. 4. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 13. 19. 22. 26. 28. 31. 31. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -8. -15. -22. -37. -54. -66. -79. -87. -93. -97.-100.