* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * FLORENCE AL111994 11/08/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 84 79 71 65 52 40 30 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 85 84 79 71 65 52 40 30 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 85 83 74 63 54 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G03R 47 38 49 42 42 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 7 10 25 26 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 29 23 21 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 146 58 26 350 319 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.9 21.3 16.7 11.0 9.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 100 92 79 71 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 97 88 76 69 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.2 -55.2 -52.3 -50.0 -47.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 53 54 54 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 17 18 24 23 26 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 103 201 269 347 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 38 31 53 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1010 859 711 658 550 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.8 40.4 44.2 47.7 50.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 50.6 46.8 44.7 44.0 45.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 39 39 38 30 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 56/ 24 CX,CY: 20/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 795 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -12. -18. -28. -36. -44. -49. -53. -54. -54. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -3. -4. -5. -10. -16. -20. -23. -24. -22. -19. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -19. -24. -27. -31. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 4. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 3. 4. 8. 10. 13. 16. 18. 20. 21. 22. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -6. -14. -20. -33. -45. -55. -66. -73. -78. -81. -82.