* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * FLORENCE AL111994 11/08/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 84 79 73 67 52 35 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 85 84 79 73 67 52 35 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 85 82 74 63 54 40 32 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G06R 45 44 57 50 50 47 44 40 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 4 13 26 27 32 26 19 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 27 23 20 26 13 10 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 155 44 23 349 314 239 166 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.8 21.2 17.8 11.8 8.3 7.7 11.6 15.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 99 91 80 70 65 61 68 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 94 87 77 68 64 60 65 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.6 -55.1 -52.6 -50.4 -47.8 -45.3 -45.5 -46.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 55 54 52 51 55 58 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 21 24 29 31 37 39 30 26 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 128 220 269 344 361 386 395 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 37 25 58 24 -5 -4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1053 841 722 658 499 437 675 1028 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.5 40.4 43.6 46.7 48.6 48.4 47.4 48.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 50.0 47.2 45.0 44.2 46.2 47.0 43.7 39.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 36 36 33 25 14 6 17 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 56/ 24 CX,CY: 20/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 795 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -13. -19. -32. -42. -50. -56. -60. -61. -61. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -12. -15. -17. -17. -16. -14. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -10. -12. -14. -17. -20. -23. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -19. -23. -27. -31. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 7. 10. 6. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 3. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 25. 28. 30. 30. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -6. -12. -18. -33. -50. -63. -75. -82. -88. -92. -95.