* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * FLORENCE AL111994 11/08/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 84 81 77 73 65 56 49 39 33 31 30 31 V (KT) LAND 85 84 81 77 73 65 56 49 39 33 31 30 31 V (KT) LGE mod 85 81 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G08R 38 38 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 7 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 178 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.9 19.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 100 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 97 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.7 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 19 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1051 730 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.5 41.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 50.1 47.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 45 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 56/ 24 CX,CY: 20/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 966 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -13. -20. -27. -34. -39. -43. -45. -45. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -13. -17. -19. -20. -19. -16. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. 16. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -16. -19. -23. -26. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -5. -7. -5. -4. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -8. -12. -20. -29. -36. -46. -52. -54. -55. -54.