* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * GORDON AL121994 11/10/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 40 51 63 73 83 88 95 102 109 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 41 52 64 75 84 89 96 104 110 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 32 32 33 37 45 55 63 67 71 77 83 V (KT) G03R 25 25 24 24 25 27 32 39 47 43 48 53 56 SHEAR (KT) 9 9 10 8 8 8 11 18 15 22 22 15 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 0 -3 -1 3 7 5 3 -8 -6 -2 SHEAR DIR 163 15 2 5 13 37 36 75 55 82 64 30 333 SST (C) 12.5 9.0 15.8 22.3 26.6 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 71 65 65 85 117 139 142 142 142 139 142 143 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 70 64 62 78 107 128 132 131 129 123 129 133 133 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.9 -55.2 -54.9 -54.7 -55.1 -54.8 -54.8 -54.2 -54.6 -54.4 -54.9 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 14 11 10 11 12 10 11 10 11 10 12 11 12 700-500 MB RH 69 69 70 69 70 67 62 58 56 53 50 50 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 15 15 17 18 20 22 27 28 29 32 35 850 MB ENV VOR 81 89 102 94 82 65 75 88 99 97 88 80 65 200 MB DIV 114 87 63 46 34 43 55 48 62 29 22 31 40 LAND (KM) -32 23 48 67 90 168 307 255 116 67 124 271 279 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 16.1 16.3 16.5 16.7 17.3 17.8 17.9 18.2 18.4 18.6 18.8 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 83.7 85.1 85.3 85.1 84.7 84.0 82.2 80.7 79.3 78.8 79.3 80.7 82.6 STM SPEED (KT) 26 14 2 3 5 6 8 7 5 2 5 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):316/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 904 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -6. -2. 3. 9. 14. 17. 19. 21. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 14. 13. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 12. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 10. 21. 33. 43. 53. 58. 65. 72. 79.