* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * GORDON AL121994 11/20/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 27 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 27 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 26 25 25 24 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G01R 38 27 29 30 27 23 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 29 23 18 20 27 64 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 7 5 -5 -13 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 139 149 144 124 132 132 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.3 25.0 26.0 26.1 25.1 15.2 23.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 101 106 115 116 106 70 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 90 95 103 105 95 67 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -56.2 -56.7 -56.7 -56.6 -56.7 -57.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 6 6 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 34 33 31 28 26 28 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 16 14 12 10 9 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -19 3 -1 -14 -12 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -48 -63 -35 -19 -42 39 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 566 517 394 221 89 15 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.8 28.7 27.8 27.4 27.4 29.2 31.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 74.6 75.2 76.2 77.8 79.2 80.8 78.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 13 11 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):191/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ -6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 720 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 5. 4. -2. -10. -17. -23. -26. -28. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 17. 19. 21. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -13. -18. -24. -28. -27. -27. -27.