* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * GORDON AL121994 11/20/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 24 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 26 25 23 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G06R 34 33 33 31 27 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 29 27 22 27 38 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 7 4 -9 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 138 138 129 114 134 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.9 25.8 26.0 25.4 20.9 12.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 105 113 115 110 83 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 93 101 104 99 76 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -56.3 -56.9 -56.9 -56.5 -56.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 4 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 34 30 26 26 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 17 14 12 10 8 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -16 -13 -21 -32 -37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -47 -61 -29 -23 -22 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 496 384 232 71 -48 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.4 28.6 28.0 27.9 28.2 30.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 75.6 76.6 78.0 79.7 81.1 81.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 14 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):191/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ -6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 771 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -2. 0. 3. 6. 7. 7. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. -2. -12. -19. -26. -29. -32. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 17. 19. 21. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12. -15. -17. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -8. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -15. -22. -29. -34. -35. -36. -37.