* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * GORDON AL121994 11/20/94 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 27 27 26 24 24 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 27 27 26 24 24 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 26 25 24 24 24 24 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G08R 34 27 27 27 28 27 31 38 35 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 29 25 20 21 33 64 42 41 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 7 7 -6 -6 4 17 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 140 149 145 120 129 122 81 46 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.2 24.7 25.6 26.1 25.6 22.8 18.9 11.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 99 103 111 116 111 95 85 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 88 91 98 104 100 90 82 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -56.3 -56.8 -56.9 -56.5 -56.3 -57.3 -58.7 -56.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 6 5 5 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 34 33 32 30 27 32 40 46 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 15 13 11 10 8 5 6 14 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -22 -16 -10 -28 -33 43 50 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -45 -61 -36 -20 -31 58 135 165 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 568 551 434 297 153 58 -128 191 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.9 28.9 28.2 28.0 28.1 30.6 36.4 42.1 47.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 74.3 74.8 75.8 77.2 78.8 80.7 77.2 66.8 57.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 13 14 25 42 42 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):191/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ -6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 735 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 4. -0. -7. -13. -19. -22. -25. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 10. 14. 19. 21. 24. 25. 27. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -14. -17. -20. -23. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -7. -2. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -3. -4. -6. -6. -4. -14. -18. -19. -20. -22.