* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ALLISON AL011995 06/06/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G09R 25 32 32 30 30 40 37 35 29 25 27 29 25 SHEAR (KT) 35 37 37 35 37 27 12 2 9 16 18 28 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 1 -6 1 3 0 -2 0 -6 -1 -3 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 41 51 61 67 71 64 18 90 107 132 115 168 175 SST (C) N/A N/A 11.0 10.1 23.1 20.5 15.4 14.4 12.8 14.6 18.2 20.0 20.0 POT. INT. (KT) N/A N/A 67 68 96 83 69 69 66 68 75 79 78 ADJ. POT. INT. N/A N/A 66 66 87 76 65 66 63 64 69 71 70 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -54.1 -54.8 -55.4 -55.6 -55.5 -56.5 -57.3 -57.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 7 6 8 8 3 6 2 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 51 49 51 50 48 52 59 62 57 51 49 50 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 25 22 22 21 20 26 28 26 22 19 18 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 36 18 43 62 37 43 108 131 102 42 21 20 -11 200 MB DIV 108 69 67 109 87 40 62 8 11 2 12 4 -37 LAND (KM) -130 -28 -9 21 35 260 202 325 207 308 478 666 839 LAT (DEG N) 31.6 32.2 33.0 33.9 35.1 37.9 39.8 40.6 41.9 42.0 41.1 40.1 39.2 LONG(DEG W) 82.7 81.2 79.7 77.7 75.7 72.1 70.2 66.7 64.2 62.0 59.3 56.8 54.8 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 17 20 21 17 10 14 9 9 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 34/ 15 CX,CY: 8/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -5. -2. -0. 1. 1. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 8. 10. 11. 8. 4. 3. 1. 1. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE -10. -18. -24. -27. -28. -27. -24. -22. -16. -9. -3. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -19. -23. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 1. -0. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -16. -21. -23. -23. -24. -26. -26. -25. -22. -20. -19.