* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * BARRY AL021995 07/09/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 47 47 46 48 48 45 36 32 28 24 V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 47 47 46 39 40 37 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 43 42 41 38 34 34 35 30 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G00R 36 34 34 32 33 27 27 32 31 22 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 11 14 14 18 16 20 21 23 24 18 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 3 0 2 1 1 13 15 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 54 41 40 31 24 1 357 347 329 312 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.9 23.9 19.9 14.5 12.9 8.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 107 100 82 72 70 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 93 88 76 69 68 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.3 -56.2 -56.2 -56.4 -56.5 -56.4 -55.7 -53.4 -50.8 -49.7 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 5 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 51 51 49 49 49 52 62 66 70 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 18 19 19 19 20 18 18 19 20 12 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 61 73 66 55 65 87 77 93 112 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 39 20 48 49 36 44 38 63 34 39 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 506 385 272 157 10 41 67 233 86 -164 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.7 40.1 41.8 43.6 45.8 50.1 54.2 58.6 63.3 67.6 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 65.8 64.6 63.1 61.5 60.1 58.2 56.2 58.6 62.7 67.7 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 19 21 23 22 23 21 25 23 27 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 31/ 17 CX,CY: 9/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -5. -7. -12. -14. -15. -14. -14. -14. -14. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 11. 10. 10. 10. 9. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 15. 17. 17. 18. 17. 17. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -13. -17. -21. -24. -27. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -0. 0. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 3. 3. 0. -9. -13. -17. -21.