* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * BARBARA EP031995 07/09/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 67 71 75 76 78 78 76 73 73 75 73 69 V (KT) LAND 60 67 71 75 76 78 78 76 73 73 75 73 69 V (KT) LGE mod 60 70 78 82 85 84 82 81 79 77 75 73 70 V (KT) G00R 22 21 20 21 18 18 18 19 18 22 22 22 26 SHEAR (KT) 17 17 16 17 17 14 9 9 7 3 7 7 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -6 -6 -5 -2 0 -4 -2 -2 -1 -3 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 186 177 170 164 163 173 158 165 208 160 175 247 151 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 28.8 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 154 154 154 155 153 149 147 146 145 144 147 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.8 -54.4 -54.6 -54.5 -54.9 -54.7 -55.0 -55.0 -55.2 -54.7 -55.1 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 13 11 11 10 10 9 10 10 11 10 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 60 61 64 65 66 67 63 63 64 68 67 70 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 5 5 6 8 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR -69 -72 -63 -56 -60 -60 -58 -54 -50 -39 -34 -25 -12 200 MB DIV -4 -14 -13 23 33 19 19 27 10 10 -6 19 40 LAND (KM) 893 924 993 1079 1150 1231 1409 1650 1846 2065 2318 2532 2392 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.8 12.9 13.0 13.2 13.4 12.9 12.2 12.1 11.9 11.7 11.4 11.0 LONG(DEG W) 109.2 110.3 111.4 112.6 113.8 116.0 118.2 120.8 123.6 126.4 129.4 131.8 134.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 11 11 12 14 13 15 13 11 14 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):313/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 2. 3. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE 7. 10. 13. 13. 12. 11. 9. 7. 6. 6. 5. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 5. 7. 9. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 11. 15. 16. 18. 18. 16. 13. 13. 15. 13. 9.