* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * BARBARA EP031995 07/09/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 67 72 76 78 79 78 76 72 73 75 77 76 V (KT) LAND 60 67 72 76 78 79 78 76 72 73 75 77 76 V (KT) LGE mod 60 70 78 83 86 87 86 83 80 79 78 78 78 V (KT) G07R 25 22 21 24 20 19 20 20 19 21 22 25 27 SHEAR (KT) 16 12 11 13 15 15 11 12 8 9 12 9 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -7 -7 -4 -1 0 -6 -6 -4 -6 -7 -7 -5 SHEAR DIR 196 178 158 158 160 174 171 170 187 133 136 124 83 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.6 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.3 27.4 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 153 154 153 153 152 144 143 142 139 140 142 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.9 -54.3 -54.3 -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 -54.9 -54.8 -55.1 -54.9 -55.0 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 12 12 11 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 57 57 60 61 61 61 58 57 57 59 58 60 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 5 6 6 7 6 6 5 6 7 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR -96 -88 -67 -50 -51 -50 -37 -39 -39 -27 -24 -18 -15 200 MB DIV -27 -26 -10 25 21 -9 4 -1 -14 -16 -17 2 32 LAND (KM) 850 889 940 1016 1083 1147 1347 1601 1799 2010 2244 2384 2065 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 12.9 13.1 13.3 13.7 14.1 13.6 12.9 12.9 12.9 13.2 13.0 12.9 LONG(DEG W) 109.1 109.9 110.9 112.1 113.4 115.7 118.2 120.9 123.9 126.7 129.9 133.5 136.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 11 13 13 12 13 13 15 16 17 17 15 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):313/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -5. -5. -4. -2. PERSISTENCE 7. 10. 13. 13. 12. 11. 9. 7. 6. 6. 5. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 16. 18. 19. 18. 16. 12. 13. 15. 17. 16.