* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * BARRY AL021995 07/09/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 46 47 47 46 47 47 41 32 28 24 20 V (KT) LAND 45 46 46 47 39 38 37 37 30 31 28 23 19 V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 43 42 35 36 34 33 34 30 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G10R 50 39 40 39 39 28 29 32 32 33 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 12 17 17 18 17 23 25 22 18 15 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 2 6 2 3 1 3 13 21 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 41 29 21 12 357 353 2 341 331 303 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.5 22.4 18.1 14.0 14.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 104 92 78 72 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 92 82 73 69 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.3 -56.2 -56.2 -56.3 -56.0 -55.3 -54.4 -52.6 -50.8 -49.6 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 6 4 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 48 47 45 46 50 53 62 65 71 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 21 22 22 23 23 20 20 22 18 12 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 75 85 64 56 64 63 57 104 100 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 26 46 61 43 50 56 59 40 37 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 467 344 189 79 -11 -3 132 198 56 2 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.8 40.4 42.2 44.1 46.4 51.0 55.7 59.4 64.0 68.9 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 66.3 65.2 64.0 62.3 61.0 59.0 57.7 60.0 62.7 65.5 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 19 21 24 24 25 20 21 24 28 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 31/ 17 CX,CY: 9/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -8. -12. -14. -15. -14. -14. -14. -14. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. 14. 14. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -21. -24. -28. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -1. -0. -3. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. -4. -13. -17. -21. -25.