* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * BARBARA EP031995 07/17/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 30 32 35 37 40 41 42 43 44 46 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 30 32 35 37 40 41 42 43 44 46 V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 26 25 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G10R 20 19 19 19 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 11 7 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 239 265 288 116 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.7 25.7 26.0 26.2 26.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 119 123 126 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 33 31 32 31 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 3 2 2 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 9 10 8 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -24 -31 -36 -28 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1537 1478 1412 1313 1217 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.4 15.9 15.6 15.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 140.6 141.2 142.0 143.1 144.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):279/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 13. 14. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 16.