* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * CHANTAL AL031995 07/17/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 63 63 63 59 57 56 55 54 54 54 54 V (KT) LAND 60 62 63 63 63 59 57 56 55 54 54 54 54 V (KT) LGE mod 60 63 64 64 63 60 58 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G10R 34 28 27 23 24 22 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 20 20 20 20 17 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 4 2 3 4 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 37 20 4 353 354 328 326 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.2 26.2 25.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 134 131 128 126 117 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 125 119 115 110 109 102 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -53.3 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 15 14 13 13 13 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 49 52 52 51 55 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 17 15 14 14 13 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -33 -16 -2 -10 0 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 19 5 11 7 21 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 867 910 802 692 618 447 597 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.5 28.2 28.9 29.8 30.5 32.9 34.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 69.3 70.7 71.6 72.1 72.2 72.1 69.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 10 8 10 13 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 11 CX,CY: -1/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 3. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6.