* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * CHANTAL AL031995 07/20/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 55 53 50 41 34 28 22 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 56 55 53 50 41 34 28 22 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 56 55 50 44 35 28 25 24 27 31 35 DIS V (KT) G00R 33 38 41 43 41 35 33 29 35 35 35 29 0 SHEAR (KT) 16 28 40 41 41 40 27 14 9 5 10 20 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 0 2 6 7 6 2 0 -1 -5 0 N/A SHEAR DIR 68 46 45 52 64 77 69 62 54 57 111 81 N/A SST (C) 25.7 25.0 18.7 11.9 9.3 14.0 12.0 12.7 12.4 11.4 9.5 9.1 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 114 110 82 72 70 73 71 70 68 67 66 66 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 100 98 77 70 69 70 69 67 65 65 65 64 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.7 -54.3 -54.7 -54.8 -54.6 -53.4 -51.7 -50.0 -49.8 -50.5 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 53 47 44 44 50 58 63 62 57 61 56 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 18 20 20 15 15 17 17 17 17 7 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 49 62 45 32 23 51 70 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 58 56 47 70 79 57 26 20 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 695 629 422 260 446 932 1499 1056 847 652 512 617 N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.5 41.0 42.9 45.3 47.2 50.5 53.7 56.6 58.9 60.8 62.4 64.0 N/A LONG(DEG W) 57.7 56.0 53.3 50.3 46.8 40.3 33.0 26.0 20.3 15.7 10.0 3.2 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 24 30 31 29 27 28 21 16 15 17 17 N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 24 CX,CY: 21/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -5. -8. -14. -18. -22. -24. -26. -27. -27. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. -17. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 14. 11. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -19. -23. -27. -31. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -15. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -2. -5. -14. -21. -27. -33. -38. -44. -61. -69.