* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * COSME EP041995 07/20/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 61 56 51 39 29 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 64 61 56 51 39 29 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 66 63 59 55 47 41 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G00R 20 24 21 21 22 19 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 13 11 6 7 12 12 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 1 0 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 13 15 14 332 300 289 317 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.0 23.6 23.2 23.0 23.0 23.7 23.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 100 96 93 91 91 99 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -54.3 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 49 46 42 39 40 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 12 10 10 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -25 -32 -41 -52 -38 -30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -1 9 -4 -1 13 20 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 573 592 652 735 805 985 1154 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.6 21.8 21.8 21.6 21.3 20.5 20.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.7 117.1 117.8 118.6 119.2 120.7 122.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 7 7 7 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):302/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -11. -17. -22. -27. -32. -35. -37. -40. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -8. -10. -11. -11. -10. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -9. -14. -26. -36. -46. -54. -60. -66. -71. -77.