* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * CHANTAL AL031995 07/20/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 56 53 50 40 33 27 21 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 56 56 53 50 40 33 27 21 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 56 55 51 45 35 28 25 25 29 33 37 DIS V (KT) G01R 48 46 48 47 45 39 36 32 36 35 30 25 0 SHEAR (KT) 11 20 35 38 41 40 25 11 6 9 19 32 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 1 4 3 3 7 0 -3 -4 -2 4 N/A SHEAR DIR 59 48 52 54 68 78 58 41 72 92 104 78 N/A SST (C) 25.8 25.5 20.1 13.5 11.4 15.2 12.3 12.5 12.3 11.5 9.0 8.2 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 116 114 85 73 71 75 71 69 68 68 66 65 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 104 102 79 70 70 71 69 67 66 65 64 64 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -54.0 -54.9 -54.8 -53.3 -51.5 -50.2 -49.8 -49.9 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 53 48 43 42 49 60 67 67 67 65 68 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 20 21 22 23 23 18 17 18 17 16 16 7 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 41 47 33 5 -38 47 91 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 56 55 42 65 78 52 30 18 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 767 738 511 371 509 966 1498 1103 902 647 562 677 N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.8 40.1 42.1 44.1 45.8 49.2 53.3 56.5 58.7 60.7 62.9 64.6 N/A LONG(DEG W) 57.7 55.3 52.8 50.1 46.6 39.7 32.8 26.7 21.7 15.7 10.1 4.7 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 23 25 28 29 30 29 27 21 17 18 16 15 N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 24 CX,CY: 21/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -2. -4. -7. -13. -17. -21. -23. -25. -26. -26. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 5. 6. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -14. -15. -17. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 7. 10. 12. 11. 8. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -18. -23. -27. -31. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -4. -5. -11. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -15. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -2. -5. -15. -22. -28. -34. -39. -47. -66. -80.