* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * COSME EP041995 07/20/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 60 55 47 31 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 64 60 55 47 31 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 66 63 58 52 41 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G01R 27 21 17 19 18 18 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 13 13 7 6 8 4 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 1 3 1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 356 351 357 14 347 314 298 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.8 23.6 23.2 22.2 21.7 21.5 21.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 97 95 94 84 76 73 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 -53.9 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 48 46 41 37 37 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 11 9 8 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -33 -38 -54 -68 -56 -76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 6 20 -6 -20 -5 -18 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 612 637 629 536 476 513 565 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.5 21.5 21.9 23.4 24.2 24.1 23.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.1 117.4 117.6 117.6 117.7 118.1 118.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 10 11 5 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):302/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -8. -13. -23. -32. -38. -44. -48. -50. -53. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -5. -10. -18. -33. -46. -59. -69. -75. -81. -88. -94.