* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * CHANTAL AL031995 07/20/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 54 51 48 39 31 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 56 54 51 48 39 31 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 56 54 48 43 34 27 24 24 26 28 DIS DIS V (KT) G02R 52 42 43 45 40 37 33 28 30 28 31 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 17 25 39 39 41 33 24 17 13 11 13 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 4 5 9 7 2 0 1 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 73 55 47 54 62 78 71 61 62 68 61 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.6 23.8 15.9 11.3 9.4 12.3 11.6 12.4 11.9 10.1 8.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 114 102 76 72 70 72 70 69 69 67 66 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 102 92 73 70 69 70 68 67 67 65 65 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -54.4 -54.9 -54.0 -52.6 -50.9 -48.8 -48.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 53 49 47 47 53 66 64 58 54 62 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 19 18 20 20 20 15 14 14 14 15 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 43 63 46 42 35 56 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 58 66 44 70 80 78 21 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 656 587 359 297 515 1072 1353 1002 706 495 589 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 40.0 41.5 43.5 45.9 48.1 51.6 55.4 57.8 59.8 61.9 63.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 57.3 55.0 52.3 49.3 45.8 38.7 30.8 24.5 17.5 10.7 4.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 23 26 30 32 31 29 26 20 21 18 17 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 24 CX,CY: 21/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -9. -14. -19. -22. -24. -26. -27. -27. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 13. 12. 8. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -23. -27. -31. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -15. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. -1. -4. -7. -16. -24. -32. -38. -44. -58. -69. -77.