* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * COSME EP041995 07/20/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 61 56 49 35 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 64 61 56 49 35 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 66 63 57 51 42 35 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G02R 25 25 24 22 22 19 19 14 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 12 9 5 4 7 13 16 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 4 4 3 -1 6 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 30 30 58 18 304 268 292 319 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.2 23.6 23.0 22.4 22.1 22.2 22.8 23.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 103 97 91 84 80 82 89 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -54.0 -54.1 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 52 49 44 39 39 36 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 15 13 12 11 10 9 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -20 -27 -33 -45 -45 -45 -40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -7 4 2 -18 -14 -3 -8 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 496 510 546 593 624 742 862 1005 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.3 22.6 22.9 22.9 22.3 21.6 21.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.0 116.5 117.1 117.8 118.3 119.3 120.2 121.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 6 5 5 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):302/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -8. -12. -21. -27. -33. -38. -41. -44. -47. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -9. -16. -30. -44. -57. -67. -72. -79. -84. -91.