* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * CHANTAL AL031995 07/20/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 55 53 51 42 35 30 26 22 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 56 55 53 51 42 35 30 26 22 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 56 55 50 44 35 28 25 25 28 33 37 DIS V (KT) G03R 34 34 36 38 39 34 30 28 39 40 37 31 0 SHEAR (KT) 21 34 44 46 45 43 28 12 5 3 5 9 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -2 -1 0 5 3 1 2 -1 -2 0 N/A SHEAR DIR 52 45 45 50 61 72 63 64 68 97 126 49 N/A SST (C) 25.5 25.2 20.3 12.2 10.2 13.4 11.4 12.2 12.1 11.1 7.9 8.1 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 113 111 86 72 70 72 71 70 69 69 66 65 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 99 98 80 70 69 69 69 67 66 67 65 64 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.7 -54.5 -54.8 -54.9 -54.6 -53.8 -52.1 -49.9 -47.7 -45.7 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 51 46 43 43 49 54 59 58 58 61 59 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 15 17 18 14 13 16 18 19 19 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 62 69 53 32 22 65 61 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 53 55 61 67 55 58 33 18 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 692 600 439 177 325 783 1367 1163 924 652 665 922 N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.3 40.8 42.8 45.3 47.0 50.0 53.6 56.4 59.0 61.4 64.3 66.7 N/A LONG(DEG W) 58.5 56.8 54.6 52.0 48.6 42.3 35.0 27.7 21.8 15.2 8.1 2.2 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 23 29 30 28 26 28 22 20 22 19 16 N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 24 CX,CY: 21/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -5. -8. -14. -18. -22. -24. -25. -26. -27. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 2. 4. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -14. -16. -17. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 15. 14. 9. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -19. -23. -27. -30. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. 0. 1. 2. 2. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -15. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. -0. -2. -4. -13. -20. -25. -29. -33. -40. -62. -71.