* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * COSME EP041995 07/20/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 60 56 50 39 31 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 64 60 56 50 39 31 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 65 63 58 54 48 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G03R 39 28 26 24 26 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 16 14 8 10 14 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 1 0 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 26 23 18 336 316 320 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.7 23.2 23.0 23.1 23.5 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 98 93 92 93 97 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 47 43 39 37 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 15 13 13 11 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -47 -48 -55 -62 -35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -3 -1 10 3 7 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 575 614 702 811 902 1181 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.0 21.7 21.2 20.7 19.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.9 117.5 118.3 119.2 119.9 121.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 9 9 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):302/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -8. -11. -15. -19. -24. -29. -32. -34. -37. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -5. -9. -15. -26. -34. -43. -52. -58. -64. -69. -74.