* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * CHANTAL AL031995 07/20/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 55 53 50 41 34 29 24 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 56 55 53 50 41 34 29 24 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 56 54 50 44 35 28 25 25 27 31 36 DIS V (KT) G04R 29 30 35 38 35 32 31 32 36 33 30 30 0 SHEAR (KT) 23 37 48 45 48 43 26 10 5 2 5 15 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -3 -6 0 -1 9 7 5 4 0 -5 4 N/A SHEAR DIR 45 39 41 47 57 72 71 53 45 34 120 91 N/A SST (C) 25.2 24.3 19.3 12.2 9.5 13.2 11.1 12.1 11.9 11.1 9.5 9.2 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 111 105 83 72 71 72 71 70 68 66 65 66 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 98 94 77 71 69 69 69 68 65 63 63 65 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.9 -54.5 -54.5 -54.4 -53.7 -52.3 -50.6 -49.4 -49.0 -50.1 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 52 47 44 43 46 55 62 61 54 55 50 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 15 16 16 11 11 15 19 17 16 9 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 62 60 54 43 76 112 109 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 53 64 52 68 56 50 28 16 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 650 536 388 154 314 813 1399 1111 852 681 570 533 N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.5 41.2 43.3 45.4 47.7 50.8 54.2 57.2 59.7 61.5 62.6 63.3 N/A LONG(DEG W) 59.2 57.5 55.2 52.3 48.6 42.2 34.7 26.7 20.2 15.7 11.2 4.7 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 21 24 28 32 31 26 29 24 17 13 12 18 N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 24 CX,CY: 21/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -14. -19. -22. -24. -26. -27. -27. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 2. 4. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 11. 9. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -19. -23. -27. -30. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. -2. -2. 1. 3. 2. 0. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -15. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. -0. -2. -5. -14. -21. -26. -31. -36. -43. -57. -65.