* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * COSME EP041995 07/20/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 62 57 51 38 27 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 65 62 57 51 38 27 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 66 64 61 57 49 44 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G04R 30 29 27 25 26 21 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 13 10 5 9 17 17 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 2 4 2 0 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 1 2 350 304 287 295 326 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.3 24.0 23.5 23.3 23.5 24.2 25.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 103 100 96 95 97 104 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -54.3 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 6 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 48 46 42 40 41 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 19 17 16 14 13 10 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -17 -30 -48 -54 -7 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 2 22 1 -11 8 29 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 579 603 653 749 841 1033 1244 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.3 21.4 21.5 21.2 20.7 19.7 18.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.5 116.9 117.6 118.5 119.2 120.7 122.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 8 8 8 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):302/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -9. -14. -18. -21. -25. -28. -30. -33. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -5. -10. -14. -17. -17. -16. -17. -16. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -3. -8. -14. -27. -38. -47. -55. -60. -66. -70. -74.