* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * CHANTAL AL031995 07/20/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 54 51 48 38 31 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 56 54 51 48 38 31 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 56 54 48 43 33 27 24 24 27 30 34 DIS V (KT) G05R 46 46 44 43 38 37 33 30 36 36 31 27 0 SHEAR (KT) 14 23 37 40 42 39 27 18 11 6 6 14 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 6 5 4 6 4 1 1 1 -7 -2 N/A SHEAR DIR 72 51 49 53 67 83 77 71 65 68 103 87 N/A SST (C) 25.7 23.9 15.8 11.6 10.2 13.8 12.5 13.6 12.7 11.2 8.6 8.1 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 116 102 76 71 70 73 71 71 69 67 64 64 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 104 93 72 70 69 70 69 68 67 65 62 63 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.9 -54.5 -55.1 -54.9 -53.8 -52.1 -50.1 -49.3 -49.7 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 53 49 46 45 51 58 63 63 64 61 54 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 19 19 20 20 20 15 13 16 16 16 17 13 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 36 46 29 10 -32 19 33 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 64 62 45 74 92 64 26 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 683 606 375 335 542 1043 1419 952 723 532 605 679 N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.8 41.3 43.4 45.5 47.3 50.3 53.6 55.9 58.3 61.1 63.3 64.6 N/A LONG(DEG W) 57.2 54.7 52.1 49.1 45.6 38.7 31.6 24.5 18.6 13.0 10.2 6.0 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 24 26 29 30 29 27 26 22 20 17 11 13 N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 24 CX,CY: 21/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -9. -14. -19. -22. -24. -26. -27. -27. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -17. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 6. 10. 13. 15. 14. 11. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -15. -19. -23. -27. -31. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -5. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -15. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. -1. -4. -7. -17. -24. -30. -36. -42. -48. -60. -75.