* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * COSME EP041995 07/20/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 62 57 51 36 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 65 62 57 51 36 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 66 64 59 54 44 36 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G05R 33 28 28 26 26 21 19 13 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 10 7 4 3 9 11 15 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 3 5 6 2 0 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 359 9 57 359 293 262 283 304 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.6 24.1 23.4 22.8 22.4 22.1 21.7 21.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 107 102 95 88 83 80 75 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.7 -53.6 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 51 49 43 39 38 35 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 19 17 16 15 14 11 8 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -25 -44 -48 -52 -41 -34 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -1 17 1 -9 -6 -6 -11 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 527 504 498 545 593 655 694 761 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.4 21.9 22.5 22.8 22.9 22.7 22.9 22.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.9 116.1 116.5 117.2 117.8 118.5 119.3 119.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 6 4 4 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):302/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -10. -19. -27. -35. -40. -43. -46. -49. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -8. -13. -20. -20. -19. -20. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -3. -8. -14. -29. -45. -63. -72. -78. -84. -90. -96.