* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * CHANTAL AL031995 07/20/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 56 54 51 41 34 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 56 56 54 51 41 34 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 56 55 50 45 35 28 24 24 26 28 DIS DIS V (KT) G06R 42 42 43 45 43 38 35 33 34 32 25 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 12 24 38 40 41 40 27 16 15 17 26 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 3 6 4 4 1 0 4 7 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 74 46 47 51 62 73 63 62 73 83 87 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.8 25.3 19.1 12.3 9.5 14.0 11.5 12.8 12.6 12.1 12.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 115 112 82 72 70 73 71 70 70 70 71 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 102 100 77 70 69 70 69 68 67 67 68 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.8 -54.2 -54.6 -54.4 -53.7 -52.6 -51.3 -52.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 51 46 43 44 50 63 65 57 55 49 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 19 19 21 23 23 18 17 19 18 16 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 51 70 57 40 14 56 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 62 53 49 65 79 57 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 729 660 444 278 428 939 1490 1003 668 263 307 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.2 40.7 42.7 44.9 47.0 50.5 54.5 56.9 58.3 59.5 60.2 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 57.6 55.8 53.2 50.6 47.2 40.2 32.8 25.0 17.6 9.2 0.2 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 24 28 30 31 29 29 23 21 23 24 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 24 CX,CY: 21/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -2. -5. -8. -13. -18. -21. -23. -25. -26. -26. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. -17. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 5. 8. 12. 14. 14. 13. 12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -15. -19. -23. -27. -31. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -3. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -15. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -1. -4. -13. -21. -27. -34. -41. -52. -62. -70.