* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * COSME EP041995 07/20/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 65 62 57 45 32 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 66 65 62 57 45 32 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 67 66 63 59 50 44 38 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G06R 29 27 27 24 24 22 19 16 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 10 6 1 3 10 10 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 1 2 1 0 -2 4 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 332 350 308 267 280 276 319 348 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.1 24.7 24.1 23.5 23.0 23.3 23.7 23.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 112 108 103 96 91 95 98 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -54.0 -54.1 -54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 49 48 42 39 40 39 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 15 14 13 10 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -22 -33 -44 -63 -54 -54 -53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 18 0 6 11 9 -3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 594 581 610 662 717 894 1045 1155 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.6 21.0 21.3 21.5 21.6 21.0 20.4 20.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.9 116.2 116.9 117.7 118.4 120.0 121.4 123.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 7 7 8 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):302/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -5. -8. -14. -20. -25. -30. -32. -35. -38. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -12. -16. -15. -15. -16. -15. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -3. -8. -20. -33. -46. -55. -60. -66. -70. -75.