* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * CHANTAL AL031995 07/20/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 57 55 54 51 46 40 33 27 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 57 57 55 54 51 46 40 33 27 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 57 57 54 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G07R 31 34 33 34 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 8 16 40 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -2 -3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 28 24 43 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.8 25.8 22.7 11.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 115 117 99 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 101 105 94 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.8 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 5 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 49 44 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 32 50 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 58 44 47 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 838 820 532 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.9 38.7 42.0 46.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 58.6 56.5 55.0 52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 25 41 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 24 CX,CY: 21/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -15. -16. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -15. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 0. -1. -4. -9. -15. -22. -28. -36. -43. -51.