* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * COSME EP041995 07/20/95 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 59 55 50 39 29 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 63 59 55 50 39 29 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 65 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G07R 33 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 17 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 15 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.6 22.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 98 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 637 706 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.5 21.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.4 118.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):302/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -11. -17. -23. -28. -33. -36. -38. -41. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -10. -15. -26. -36. -47. -57. -64. -70. -76. -83.